The Present Realities of America in 2050: With Implications for Churches

Guest Post by Carol Childress

For three decades, Carol Childress has helped faith-based and non-profit leaders “connect the dots” and understand the context of 21st century culture and its implications for mission and ministry. She served as an information broker for Leadership Network from 1991-2004. Prior to Leadership Network she served on the staff of a regional judicatory and was also involved in city management and community development in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Contact Carol via .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). This article is reprinted with permission from Leadership Network Advance, a free twice-monthly newsletter about church innovation.  Click here for more information about Leadership Network Advance.

In the current atmosphere of concern and even fear about changes in the American economic system and resulting way of life, the waging of war and peace in a fragile world, and the interdependence wrought by the realities of globalization, many people find it difficult to be optimistic about the future. Not Joel Kotkin. In seven chapters and 125 points of expanded narrative, Kotkin provides a sweeping glimpse of his take on the future of America over the next 40 years in The Next Hundred Million: America by 2050 (Penguin Press, 2010). The title references the addition of another 100 million American residents by the year 2050. A prolific author and social geographer, Kotkin address four significant areas of change: demography, ethnicity, the expansion of suburbia, and the growth of the heartland states.

Vital But Different

If demography is destiny, the United States has a positive future. The increasing population growth in the U.S. from natural births and continued immigration will be in contrast to the rest of the world, especially Europe, Japan, and even China. This demographic vitality will drive the U.S.’s economic resilience and also significantly increase the inter-generational dimension of our population. 

America’s belief that “national identity transcends race or religion” and our historical receptivity to immigration distinguishes it from the rest of the world. Kotkin describes a “post-ethnic” America in terms of cross-over retailing, cross-over suburbs, and a “hybrid culture” where one of five marriages could be inter-racial by mid-century.

Lure of Lower Density

One-half of the 2010 population lives in the suburbs, and the “lure of lower density” will intensify in the next 40 years. The need to house more people will result in major suburban expansion. Less reliant on their nearby urban core, these new suburbs will produce “smart sprawl” and blend work, play, culture, housing and economic development. The suburban population will be increasingly diverse in terms of age, marital status, gender, ethnicity and economic status. “Immigrants, their children and native-born minorities will become a dominant force in shaping suburbia,” Kotkin says.

The growth of the heartland-that great space between the east and west coasts-will be fueled by technology, telecommunications and new sources of energy. As quality of life for families becomes more important and technology allows for “economic de-clustering” from traditional urban centers, a network of vibrant small cities will emerge, capitalizing on both the American pioneer spirit and entrepreneurial DNA.

Economic Disparity

Kotkin also gives attention to the increasing economic disparity that is focused more on class than race and to the continued need for authentic community. “The most pressing social problem facing mid-21st century America will be class,” he says. An information society results in “an expanding affluent class of the highly educated, a stubbornly impoverished population, and a shrinking middle class.” As we become less mobile and younger generations are more family friendly, “family and community are likely to remain central forces in the next few decades.”

Implications for Churches

What should missional church leaders make of Kotkin’s America in 2050? What might be some key present realities of future events?

One of the most striking realities is the transition in generational leadership that is underway now and will have occurred by 2050. Most Boomers will be gone, the Millennials will be in their 60s and 70s, and children being born this year will be 40. The character and skills of these future generations of leaders are being shaped today. They will lead in an even more inter-dependent and complex world. Equipping them with ageless wisdom from a biblical worldview, cross-cultural understanding, and leadership transition skills are essential. The existence of more intergenerational families and communities will require a re-assessment of existing ministry models that are primarily age driven.

The expansion of suburbia and the heartland states will require the planting of new churches of all sizes and types, churches that are more intergenerational and more multi-cultural. Local and global will be more important than ever.

The economic bifurcation of the population will be a challenge, offering congregations an opportunity to continue the movement toward local engagement with their communities beyond the walls of the sanctuary and focus on issues of social and economic justice.

The contemporary search for significance and meaning, connections and community will be intensified. Congregations that provide authentic faith experiences and a caring and engaged community will then, as now, flourish.

For America, the year 2050 will mean more people, increased ethnicity, multiple generations, expanding suburbs and heartland, growing class disparity and an intensified search for family, meaning and community.

Would that we might be 21st century men and women of Issachar (1 Chron. 13:32) who not only understand our times but also know how to respond to them.

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